The 2024 US elections - What will happen if Trump returns?
Lecture
from 03. September 2024
Members Only
According to surveys, for the majority of Germans and Europeans, not only is the future of Ukraine and the Middle East at stake in 2024, but also American democracy - a possible re-election of Trump could confirm this.
However, there are two important limitations to this: Firstly, Trump's success in the US is not based solely on his authoritarianism; for many Americans, he embodies the candidate who, for all his unpredictability, will tackle the country's most pressing challenges. Secondly, a Democratic President will not solve the fundamental problems in the transatlantic relationship. If the Europeans want to strengthen their partnership with America, they will be challenged to the utmost in both cases: with regard to their security policy in Europe, as partners on their own region, and in the Indo-Pacific; with regard to their positioning in the power struggle between China and the USA; and with regard to the challenge to European institutions in the competition with autocracies.
In any case, however, Trump's re-election in another crisis year would be an even greater challenge for Europe than in 2016, a challenge for which it should be better prepared this time.
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